MLB Regular Season Predictions (AL Edition)
Predictions for how the 2023 MLB Season can unfold for all 15 American League baseball clubs.
As of me writing this, we are currently eight days away from Major League Baseball's Opening Day. The MLB season is set to get underway, and today we will be looking at all 15 teams in the American League. With the goal of analyzing their rosters, and making predictions for how their season could play out. This article will go by division then teams in alphabetical order.
AL EAST - BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR
Baltimore Orioles: Last season saw one of the greater improvements in the regular season win-loss record. Going from 52 wins in 2021 to 83 wins in 2022 has given Orioles fans tons of optimism for the future. The Orioles will look to build off their promising 2022 campaign; especially since many other prospects such as Grayson Rodriguez, are due to come up either this season or later. While the Orioles are certainly on the right track, there are some concerns heading into this season. The starting pitching staff drastically overperformed last season, and the team did not spend as much in free agency as critics say they should've. Despite this, we certainly won't see the lows Orioles baseball had to experience from 2018-2021. The most likely scenario for them will see them be a fringe playoff team that will be in the playoff mix until the final week or two of the season. But lots of upside is still here.
Win Range: 78-88 Wins.
Boston Red Sox: Hard to make out what the Red Sox are trying to do. They seem to be a somewhat directionless franchise coming off a 78-84 2022 season that saw them finish last in their division. They lose Xander Bogaerts but shore up a lot of their roster with depth and bullpen signings. Even so, the starting pitching staff is still very questionable regarding how it's going to perform. Alex Cora will prevent them from bottoming out even if all goes wrong, but hard to see them get a playoff spot while playing in the toughest division. The Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays are all focused on winning a World Series. The Red Sox are still more focused on how they can do their best Tampa Bay Rays impersonation.
Win Range: 75-85 Wins.
New York Yankees: Anything less than winning the AL Pennant this season should be considered an abjective failure for this organization. Unfortunately, issues that would prevent the Yankees from winning their first pennant since 2009 are already coming up. The starting rotation which on paper is the best in all of MLB is already dealing with a few significant injuries. Additionally, Judge most likely isn’t going to hit 62 home runs again to cover up other shortcomings their lineup has. They should still win the AL East since they're a more talented roster than Tampa Bay's, and they've been proven they can win the division until Toronto, but there are reasons to be skeptical. Still, if everything goes well expect this Yankee team to have one of the best pitching staffs assembled in franchise history.
Win Range: 91-101 Wins.
Tampa Bay Rays: It's hard to doubt the Rays because despite their payroll & roster shortcomings, they always find a way to churn out a playoff-contending team every year. There are still many concerns with their offense, which was their weakest link last season especially during the postseason. But arguably they have MLB's most underrated starting rotation and a solid bullpen with a ton of depth. Just hope Tyler Glasnow can play roughly a full season for once if you’re a Rays fan. The most likely scenario for them is making the playoffs as the 5th or 6th seed, but they can win the division if many things break their way.
Win Range: 85-95 Wins
Toronto Blue Jays: Despite 92 wins last season, the Blue Jays played wildly inconsistent throughout large chunks of the year. The goal for John Schneider in his first full year as the Jays manager is to help eliminate these inconsistencies in hopes his team can win a championship. The test for them this season is proving the addition-by-subtraction moves their front office enacted last season can work out. They lost Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to trades, but simultaneously have an improved defense, bullpen, and a much better balance of left-handed and right-handed hitters in their lineup on paper. They're still unproven they can win a division or make a deep playoff run, but if there's a team that has the best chance of winning the AL East not named the Yankees, it's them.
Win Range: 87-97 Wins.
AL CENTRAL - CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN
Chicago White Sox: Following a disappointing 81-81 2022 campaign in which they looked like preseason shoe-ins to win the AL Central, the White Sox look to bounce back. Unfortunately, the front office made skeptical moves to try and achieve this. Letting Jose Abreu go is fine since he's in his late 30s, but the team spent little in free agency minus Andrew Benintendi and Mike Cleavinger. Cleavinger spent the offseason embroiled in controversy even if he was eventually cleared, and the team doesn't even need players like Benintendi. Their biggest issue last season was not hitting enough home runs. Yet, they acquired Benintendi who is a pure contact hitter. There are still plenty of talented players on this roster to avoid them being outright terrible however. Maybe new White Sox manager Pedro Grifol can revitalize this team, but there are significant doubts.
Win Range: 76-86 Wins.
Cleveland Guardians: Coming off a surprise 2022 campaign in which they won 92 games, the Guardians look to build sustained momentum. While some may have wanted them to spend more in free agency, they did make a couple of needed offensive additions in Josh Bell & Mike Zunino. Players who can have a lot of upside and provide much-needed power to this lineup. The key to Cleveland's success is having their players maintain their 2022 production. There are concerns with regression in parts of the roster, but they still have plenty of prospects on the way that could provide needed depth if all else goes wrong. While they shouldn't be called a clear favorite to win the AL Central, they should still be favored. Even if they don't win the division, expect this team to still find a way to have a winning record with Terry Francona once again back at the helm.
Win Range: 84-94 Wins.
Detroit Tigers: There's not a lot to say about this team as new Tigers GM Scott Harris continues to clean up the mess the previous front office led by Al Avila left him. The hope with the Tigers this season is that Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson can maybe develop into legitimate players. As well as their young pitchers like Casey Mize potentially coming back later this season from Tommy John Surgery. Maybe Javy Baez can have a bounce-back season too? Only time will tell. But this team is still rebuilding.
Win Range: 63-73 Wins.
Kansas City Royals: They're in a similar situation as the Tigers are right now, the only difference is their current roster has a little more upside; and some prospects like Brady Singer and Vinnie Pasquantino have looked very promising. Salvador Perez could be due for a bounce-back season as well, but like the Tigers this team is still rebuilding. Worth noting however that as of me writing this, they have the most wins in spring training this year.
Win Range: 66-76 Wins.
Minnesota Twins: Probably the toughest team to predict among all AL ballclubs. The talent is there for them to win the AL Central, but the key to them is staying healthy. Last season their late-season collapse was brought on by the fact that most of their better players couldn’t stay healthy. If Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and pretty much their entire pitching staff can stay healthy, they can make a run. But who knows if that can happen this year. Trading away Luis Arraez is questionable too but could prove worth it if Pablo Lopez can anchor the rest of that rotation. The hope for Twins fans is that some of their prospects come up to provide needed depth if the injury bug plagues them once more.
Win Range: 78-88 Wins.
AL WEST - HOU, LAA, OAK, SEA, TEX
Houston Astros: The defending champions are set up well enough for repeat titles. Jose Abreu is an upgrade at 1st base and starters such as Christian Javier look primed to breakout into legitimate starting pitching aces. Their lineup depth however is a little questionable, especially now that they'll be without Altuve for the first 2 months of the season. The loss of Justin Verlander to the free agency could impact them more than expected since he had a career year last season. But the pitching staff is still loaded to the brim, and there are enough offensive weapons to get by in the regular season. Don't be surprised if they struggle a little bit early on however due to a World Series hangover. The key for them is making sure that never happens. The Mariners, Rangers, and Angels will look to take any sort of lead they’ll be able to get.
Win Range: 94-104 Wins.
Los Angeles Angels: It's a weird but dire year for them. Shohei Ohtani looks destined to leave in free agency; and the Angels are scrambling to put together a roster that can win with him, in hopes he could stay. Their offseason moves could work pretty well, especially for what little they had to work with. Lots of depth signings which is something they've lacked a lot of in previous seasons. The pitching rotation looks pretty good on paper, but the bullpen and lineup still have serious questions about them. Especially if Trout or Ohtani find themselves on the IL anytime this season. They may snag a wild card spot, but still unlikely they win the AL East. Although they will be a high-variance team most likely.
Win Range: 75-85 Wins.
Oakland Athletics: An easy team to predict having the worst record in the AL this season. There’s nothing to say outside of the fact that they need to move to Las Vegas already, and the MLB needs to unironically force John Fisher to sell the team.
Win Range: 52-62 Wins.
Seattle Mariners: After finally breaking their two-decade-long playoff drought, Seattle looks to maintain this success for the first time in over two decades. While they spent far less in free agency than fans would've liked them to do, their core of players is still here. Flush with some more depth signings and a taste of previous albeit limited postseason success. The hopes for Seattle should be for Robbie Ray to find his Cy Young form again, and for Julio Rodriguez and George Kirby to avoid the dreaded "sophomore slump." If they can do both, Seattle can easily become the 2nd or 3rd best team in the American League this season. Although winning the AL West over Houston is still going to be a difficult task. Especially since the Rangers and Angels have a good chance to be better this year too.
Win Range: 87-97 Wins.
Texas Rangers: Like the Twins and Angels they're a very high-variance team. Their success depends on if the talented but injury-prone starting rotation they've acquired in free agency can hold form. Bruce Bochy should certainly help fix the 1-run loss issue they experienced last season, as they went 15-35 in one-run games in 2022. Yet it seems artificial. Many times in the past a team went out and spent big in free agency to be contenders on paper, all for it to blow up in the face. Just ask how the 2012 Marlins, 2013 Blue Jays, 2015 Padres, or 2021 Mets seasons went. This team still has big holes in the outfield and bullpen despite their big acquisitions. The x-factors for them will be Bruce Bochy and their starting pitchers, especially Jacob deGrom. If all their new players are as advertised, Texas can quickly become a playoff contender. If not, they'll be joining the previous champions of the offseason listed above.
Win Range: 73-83 Wins.
~ AWARDS PREDICTIONS ~
AL Cy Young: Luis Castillo
AL MVP: Jose Ramirez
AL MOTY: John Schneider
AL ROTY: Gunnar Henderson
Stay tuned later this week for when the National League version of my preseason MLB 2023 predictions is released. Thank you for reading, and consider sharing or subscribing down below if you want more sports-related content from this newsletter.